forecast
A careful prediction about what will happen in the future.
A forecast is a prediction about what will happen in the future, based on careful study of available information. When meteorologists make a weather forecast, they analyze temperature patterns, air pressure, wind direction, and satellite images to predict whether tomorrow will be sunny or stormy. When economists forecast next year's job market, they examine current trends in business growth, technology, and consumer spending.
Today, forecasting happens everywhere: scientists forecast earthquake risks, analysts forecast election results, and coaches forecast how their team might perform next season.
A good forecast requires gathering data, recognizing patterns, and making educated judgments based on evidence. Sometimes forecasts turn out wrong because unexpected things happen, but that doesn't mean the forecasting was careless. Weather forecasters might predict sunshine, but a sudden shift in wind patterns could bring rain instead.
You can also use forecast as a verb: “The analyst forecasts strong sales for the new video game.” Unlike fortune-telling or wishful thinking, forecasting means using real evidence to make an informed prediction about what lies ahead.